EUR/USD 15min
I couldn't fit it all on the one chart so there are some zones and lines coming in from the left that i've put text on to show where they came from. If you look through my previous posts this week you'll see them in there.
A - High volume upthrust that stops on the low of a 1hr zone - weakness
B - High volume wide spread up bar back into A - further weakness
C - I should've marked this C(i) and C(ii), you can see the two volume spikes i'm talking about anyway. Strength / support as we bounce off the 1hr 50% I mentioned previously
D - A mark up and subsequent rejection of higher prices during Asia, into the low of B which was previous weakness - further weakness
E - Another increase in volume on an upbar into the low of B - weakness
F - This is the bar that threw me off, increase in volume on a down bar closing in the middle. Certainly looked like a bit of strength had come in as we hit the 50% of an important volume zone from the 17th - i read it as strength but it was probably absorption. The poor reaction over the following bars should've be a sign to me.
This was followed by a No Demand in to the low of D. I'll come back to this ND and entries in a bit.
G - A further increase in volume as we approach the now infamous hourly 50%. Again a poor reaction that never proved any strength
H - Gotcha bar. Price is slammed down hard and on huge volume, absorbing all the buying that was previously at this level. Next bar is down so not a lot of strength here, the usually price cluster at the low of this hourly zone and we push down again.
I - We break the lows and the yearly lows all in one, huge volume as there was bound to be some positions built up in this area from the week before.
The ND I mentioned a minute ago looks like a great entry but at the time I just felt like it was in the wrong place. We'd just had the volume come in at F which I was aware of and the 1hr 50% not too far below us that we'd have to battle with. What didn't occur to me at the time- and it was something I mentioned the other day in a comment to 1lot is that it was all weighted in favour of shorts. The volume that came in at F certainly wasn't going to hold the market for long when we consider the selling volume at A, B, D and E.
What i'm trying to say, in a round about way, is that I need to remember the bigger picture. I feel i've been pretty good at reading the charts lately, but I have to start remembering what i'm seeing and not see one bar and let it destroy an idea that i've got in mind. F is a curveball and I let it cloud my over all judgement. Had that increase in volume not been there i'd have been all over that No Demand.
Right that's me done!
Enjoy the weekend everyone.
Questions, comments and criticisms welcome as always!
P.S. Batman was epic!
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