Ok, I'll Update the Blog, Jeez....

by Liam 12:35 2 comments

So what have I been up to since my last post?

Well i'm happy to report that I've well and truly got stuck in to the charts, it took a while but i'm starting to enjoy my trading again. I've taken a number of trades since I last posted so i'll run through them with a few charts now.

I've taken more of a swing trading approach over the last month or so. The basic premise has been to concentrate on the projected Point and Figure targets and taking my favoured entries. All this with a view to holding them until the target is hit. The projected targets are scarily accurate* so what i've been doing is entering trades and holding them for what has been around a week at a time.

I'd be lying if I said it had been a walk in the park, but isn't that trading in a nutshell? Come to think of it, maybe I should have titled this post - "The Definition of Being a Trader".

*Not an official figure, i'm currently going back through the charts looking at success rates and will hopefully come out with an overall percentage success rate across all forex pairs as well as a rate per pair.

Since my last post i've taken seven trades, three on EU, three on UCHF and the one on GU.

These will be the first charts i've posted since the 20th June!

Depending on how long this post is, I might break it up into two entries.

Here we go...

1st entry;

GBP/USD 1hr PnF

Generally speaking, when it comes to GBP/USD lately, I like to think of it as a right royal pain in the arse. A mind of it's own and not really showing any correlation with the likes of EU. But I digress.

You can see the projected target of 1.6060. I took this count as two previous upside targets (not shown) had been hit and we were drifting up without a real direction (in my opinion). Once we'd broken through the 50% of the green zone I was sure that weakness was taking hold, coupled with what I was seeing on the VSA charts. I took the staggered triple bottom and was subsequently stopped out on some news that followed very quickly.

You might notice a new addition to the chart - EMAs. I know, I know, who'd have thought they'd ever see such a thing on my charts. But after talking to a trading friend on Skype and having a flick through a PnF book I have, I decided to give it a go, it does show the trend quite nicely. Short when the black line is below the white, long when the black is above the white. Simples.

2nd, 3rd and 6th entries;

EUR/USD1hr PnF

This is similar to the GU chart in that there were two upside targets that had been hit, we were left with no further targets so I took the next major retrace from the high and this became a downside target.

The first entry came as we broke through the 50% with a triple bottom, placed my stop above the previous high and we moved a quick 80 pips down before retracing and stopping me just as we rejected the high of the volume zone. The downside target remains valid until the high is taken out, so for me, the market was still weak. This rejection of the volume zone high reinforced this and I took the next triple bottom (2nd entry). As the rejection was also the high I could afford a tighter stop, the R:R was quite good for this entry. Unfortunately we fell 40 pips short of the target just before the third entry. The third entry was an add on to the short I already had as a triple top break out had failed just before hand. I pulled my stop from the 2nd trade down and locked in 110 pips for that. Unfortunately, NFP kicked in and went up, the third trade was a full stop and wiped half of the 110 pips I had locked in. Nevermind, despite this, i'm happy with how the second trade went. More to the point, I experience absolutely no fear or any emotional distress whatsoever. That is testament to how far my trading has come, even if i'm not yet adding zeros to the account balance.

4th, 5th, 7th entries; 

USD/CHF 1hr PnF

This time we have an upside target in play (0.9190) and another three entries to attempt to reach it!

The first two are right next to and overlapping each other. Once we had come back and bounced off the 50% of the red zone and pushed back out this confirmed some strength for me. The first entry was a staggered triple top, except it didn't actually fill on Sierra charts, I got taken in on my broker but decided to stick with it. I unfortunately got stopped.

After i'd been shaken out of this first entry, I was presented with another opportunity to get long with a triple top entry. This one stuck and was up 70 pips at best where it rejected the low of the zone. As we had broken through this low on two occasions before I wasn't overly concerned with it holding. This second entry had been running at the same time as the second entry on the EU chart above. The third entry from EU and UC presented at the same time. Whilst I was around 150 pips up between the two. As I didn't have the same amount of breathing space as I did with EU I pulled UC up to BE to protect myself with the new entries. The low of the zone held and I unfortunately was stopped. The high of the red zone also held so Swissy is in limbo between the two at the moment.

Between the few trades I've outlined here, it's not a great outcome, but I think with better management I can start taking pips from the market. I've decided I won't be adding to my positions for now. That's another thing to look at in future and see whether the extra risk is worth it.

As always, i'm open to any comments, opinions, questions and/or criticisms!

Just to further outline my point about PnF targets, here are some other pairs with targets that were hit during these trades.

NZD/USD 1hr PnF

EUR/JPY 1hr PnF (Pink target)

AUD/JPY 1hr PnF (took a while!)

USD/JPY 1hr PnF