Missed a fantastic set up today. Strangely enough, it wasn't a confidence issue that stopped me taking the trade. I just decided at that split second that it wasn't in the right place. Looking at it now, it couldn't have been any better. This has been covered by a couple of people over at Forex Factory in the VSA with Malcolm thread but want to give my views on it as well.
I learnt patience today. As soon as bar A came in I was thinking weakness, with that massive volume and the bar closing in the middle. The next bar isn't down but bar B rejects the high of A. This soon becomes an important area for the rest of the set up. I had decided I would short off the 50% of this bar at 1.2786 or the low / 0% at 1.2773 given the set up. I didn't get a suitable entry on this initial move down. C(i) initially took me by surprise but it had trap written all over it, especially with the upthrust at C(ii) as well. There was still a bit of demand left in the market and it took the last trap / upthrust at D to finally shakeout the weak holders. We retraced from this area and a perfect ND printed at the 50% of A as well as the 50% area of C(i) which I had fibbed as well (WRB).
EUR/USD 5min
I think the fact we were on and above the 100% / high of Friday's WRB from the 15min chart @1.2781 made me hesitate. I decided I'd wait and look for a ND into the low of A @ 1.2773. I didn't get this and the trade went on without me.
I still have positives to take from this, I was ultimately right in my analysis from the point A. I've also learned by now to use an old cliché - "the market will be there tomorrow", i'll get my chance yet for this week so i'm looking forward to taking advantage of that.
Cheers,
Liam
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