Perhaps too Much Confidence!

by 13:59 0 comments
I took three trades this week, two of which turned out as losses and the third a slight profit after it closed at BE+1. All of the trades were on EUR/USD.

First chart is from the Open Office Calc sheet file that I keep, I can't draw 45° trend lines in Sierra so I keep a hand drawn chart where I keep an eye on the trend lines. As you can see, the overall trend has been down all week and this started towards the end of last week.

EUR/USD 1hr PnF with 45° trend lines

The next chart is the usual Sierra chart with volume zones based on the PnF columns / cumulative volume areas. I'll cover all the trades and thought processes that occurred during the week.

EUR/USD 1hr PnF chart

1. I posted on the Forex Factory about this position on Monday. A triple bottom sell in keeping with the trend and what looked to me like a rejection of the 50% area of the green zone. Including the resistance we had built up at this point. Note the column of X in this area stopping at the 50%.

Originally, before the triple sell formed I had an order set to take a long, this would have been a triple top buy instead of the eventual quadruple top that formed. I then noticed two things, the 50% area as I just pointed out and more importantly, the high volume column in the immediate background. If the 50% area was going to break it wasn't going to get past the low of this area and 1:1 wasn't achievable. With that in mind, I placed the short.

I'm happy with this trade, it's inline with the strategy but it's just one of those ones that didn't work. As you'll see below.

2. This is where I placed the stop for the sell and the market bounced straight back up towards my stop. Some high volume came in on the HLC chart and I reassessed my position and decided to reverse it and take the long as the quadruple top was formed. Completely ignoring everything I had already told myself about the 50% area and high volume column. As noted, it struggled over night to break through this area and it eventually failed and I was stopped again.

Not happy with this trade as it went against my own analysis and I doubted myself. The original sell was the right Idea but I hadn't taken it at the right time.

3. This was another opportunity that I didn't even notice at the time. Double top resistance and a no demand reversal column (low volume) right into the low (pink line) of the high volume column. Entry would've been 1.2980 and quite safe.
4. Keeping in mind what had happened on the last long attempt I ignored this triple top buy signal as the down trend was already well established. Turned out to be the right call as it didn't reach 1:1
5. Took this entry on Friday as it broke down through a quadruple bottom. Nice entry in keeping with the trend. It unfortunately didn't quite hit 1:1 and I moved to BE+1 after a US news announcement as quite a bit of volume came in on the HLC chart. This was hit at around 1.2838 towards the end of the day.

Again, I took the losses well and simply moved on to looking for the next position. I'm enjoying this new mental freedom that I have acquired. I just need to achieve some consistency in my trading. 





28. Forex. Trading. Music. Beer. Food. Travel.


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