Internet troubles for the last few hours so this update is a bit late.

I took two trades today and ended January on a high note. The first trade was a buy on Kiwi which I closed at break even. Unfortunately another case of not trusting myself. It would have hit the profit target. The second trade was a sell on Loony. This was an all night trade. As mentioned above I had a few internet problems so I had to get my Dad to close the trade from elsewhere this morning (Tuesday). Closed for +32 pips out of a 51 pip target. Adding about 1.86% to my account. The set ups were as follows. Screenshots taken Tuesday morning GMT.

Trade 7 - NZD/USD (Kiwi) - Buy @ 0.7705 -  Closed @ 0.7705 = 0

Kiwi 1hr

Kiwi 20min

Trade 8 - USD/CAD (Loony) - Sell @ 1.0013 -  Closed @ 0.9981 = 32 

Loony 1hr

Loony 20min

Today was a day of missed trades unfortunately. One because of an upcoming news announcement and the other because I bottled it. Missing the first trade due to an upcoming news announcement (US GDP) was in keeping with my strategy so i'm not too bothered about missing that. Even though it did come good.

The other one is a little annoying as it was my own doubt that got me out of the trade. I even had the order set but I closed it before it had even triggered. My problem was that I was looking at the 5min chart which spooked me a little bit. I saw what I thought looked like test bars and closed the trade before it triggered and took me the wrong way. Unfortunately, my original analysis was correct and it would have been a good trade. The two trades were on Cable and Kiwi respectively. 

Here are the screenshots;

Cable 1hr

Cable 20min

Kiwi 1hr

Kiwi 20min

This aside it was a profitable week and i'm still in the black since starting at the beginning of January. Seeing as the last day of January is a Monday I can't imagine there will be any more trades for this month. It's been an interesting start to the year with this month pretty much being a tester. I've learnt a lot this month and i'm happy with how things have gone to date.

There are a few things I can improve on, for instance trusting my own analysis a bit more, but that confidence will come with more time.

Looking forward to the coming months!

Cheers,

Liam

I've been looking at the hourly Eddie chart over the last few days and it reminded me of something I saw in a TradeGuider video. I thought i'd blog about it and have a go at a more long term analysis of the chart. Here's an hourly chart of cable - 275 bars

13th - 27th January - 1hr Eddie

As we can see from the hourly chart, Eddie has been in an uptrend for a while now. The trend i've drawn takes the low of the 13th Jan and 18th of January and the intersecting high; the 14th January. The trend channel is also divided into quarters.

On the chart i've marked five points, A, B, C, D and E. We'll look at each of these in turn. We're going to be looking at the high points of the chart as it is trending up.

A - At point A it has moved past the halfway point of the trend channel and nearly three quarters of the way to the upper part of the trend. In fact it has upthrusted to this area.

B/C - At points B and C the chart reaches the half way point of the trend and reaches no higher.

D - This is where my attention was drawn to a video I watched previously. The chart barely makes it past the first quarter of the trend channel before retracing back to the support line.

E - Point E happened over the course of today. The chart didn't make it past the first quarter of the trend in fact finding resistance at 1.3760. 

With this happening as we move up the trend we're slowly getting a mushrooming over of the chart and I think that before long we could start seeing a down move on Eddie. Of course this could all be negated overnight / tomorrow if the chart manages to break through the 1.3760 area.

Keeping this in mind it is important to note that the support line of the trend channel has been respected the whole way up the trend so it could take considerable effort to break it. Just thought it'd be interesting to have a look at over the next few days.

Cheers,

KFT

Took my 6th trade of the year today, which resulted in a marginal win. Marginal, but a win nonetheless! Saw some high volume on an up bar into new ground on the hourly. Went to the 20min and waited for the No Demand. Entered on the low of the bar. In retrospect the volume on the hourly could have done with being a little higher. It moved down and I was about 20pips in profit at one stage. This reversed quickly and ended up being a shakeout/test type bar. I exited towards the end of the bar with the 1pip profit. (Marked "exit bar" on the 20min chart). Short term I was correct to get out of the trade. It didn't stop out and would have eventually hit the original profit target of 1.3690.  I think this may be more by luck than anything else. Having said this, Eddie seems to have hit resistance around 1.3760.

Trade 6 - EUR/USD (Eddie) - Sell @ 1.3726 -  Closed @ 1.3725 = 1

Eddie 1hr

Eddie 20min

Didn't take any trades today, there wasn't a great deal in the way of set ups to interest me.

There was an FOMC announcement this evening. It was really interesting to watch the "smart money" toy around and catch stops.

No news announcements tomorrow, nothing of note anyway.

That's it for today,

Cheers,

KFT